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More Deaths, Then Vaccines

Across the US, preparations are underway to quickly distribute Covid-19 vaccines once authorized, but experts say before that relief occurs, the coming months will be difficult.
What comes next is likely the country’s “worst-case scenario in terms of overwhelmed hospitals, in terms of the death count,” said emergency medicine physician Dr. Leana Wen.
“There’s just so much virus in our communities right now,” she said.
Her words echoed a bleak forecast by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield, who warned Wednesday the next three months are going to be “the most difficult in the public health history of this nation.”
It’s a grim reality reflected in the latest numbers.
The US had its highest day of new cases — 217,664 — and deaths — 2,879 — on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University.
There were a record-setting, 100,667 hospitalizations, according to the COVID Tracking Project.
The US has been adding 1 million new cases every six days for three weeks.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now projects 262,000 more people will die over the next four months and daily deaths will peak at more than 2,900 in mid-January.
Vaccinations won’t have a big impact on deaths by April 1, but universal mask usage could, the IHME team said in a Friday update.
“Scaling up mask use to 95% can save 66,000 lives by April 1,” the team said.

Leading health officials say rising cases will be followed by more hospitalizations that could cripple health care systems across the country. Hospitals and experts all over the US are sounding the alarm.
Marvin O’Quinn, president and chief operating officer of CommonSpirit Health, which runs hospitals in 21 states, told CNN that all its hospitals are getting more patients.
“We are now up to roughly 2,100 positive cases in our hospitals. That’s an increase of almost 70% since November 11,” O’Quinn said. “We’re seeing about 70 to 100 new cases every day.”
In Pennsylvania, just under 5,000 people are hospitalized with Covid-19, and two parts of the state are inching closer to staffing shortages, Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said Thursday.